End of the bull run?

During my stint here in the bay area, since I cant drive a car, I take a cab every night to my hotel in milpitas. It is a fifteen minute 6 mile ride from the office in SJ to the hotel in Milpitas. But I am never allowed the opportunity to feel bored by the loquacious cab-drivers most of whom are Indians, generally Punjabis. They feel very inclined to make this fellow Indian feel at home with friendly banter. Now yesterday, this particular taxi-driver, in his very affable tone, engaged me in a very interesting conversation on how he thought the Indian economy is now faring. He said, he makes an annual sojourn to India and he had noticed on these trips of his that people back home in Punjab are becoming more and more affluent every year. Why his cousin who didnt have a telephone in his home until a couple of years back now boasted about a fancy camera-wala cellphone, something which even he sitting in California didnt possess and at this point he showed me his more humble flip-phone. "Yeh software walone ne India mein technology improve kardi hai " was his comment. I then pointed out the GPS system monitor on his car dashboard and said that this was a neat device which cabs back home could actually make use of. He then turned back to face me and asked "Kya bangalore mein bhi yeh nahin chalta? Maine tou suna thaa ki India ke bhi satellite aajkal bade ache hote hain. " I laughed and told him that this was the first time I saw a GPS tracker. This seemed to re-assure the fellow that perhaps Silicon Valley hasnt been completely Bangalored yet !

He then started talking about Reliance and asked me if the Ambani family feud is now settled. He sure seemed genuinely concerned. He then enquired "Market pe iska kya asar ho raha hai?" I told him that the brothers had now patched up and dalal street's tensions in this regard have eased off. He then said that he has been tracking the Indian stock market for a while now and it seemed that it was now booming and everyone is raking in the moolah. He too wanted a piece of the action now. "Sochta hoon apne bhai ke through thoda-bahut invest kar hi doon. Software boom tou chaloo rahega " What was my recommendation - which software company did I think was the best bet? Andar ki baat? Wipro sabse achi haina? I told him that Infosys and TCS and not Wipro were the biggest IT firms. By this time, we had reached my destination and the most interesting dialogue had to regrettably end. I paid him, thanked him both for the ride and the 'timepass'.

There is a saying in Dalal street. When the neighbourhood pan-wallah starts to give out stock tips, its time to exit. Its the beginning of the end of the bull-run. Maybe I should reevaluate my humble portfolio and tighten my stop-losses. Hmmm....